The Magic 45%
It has now been reached, with YouGov giving the Conservatives 45% and a 13-point lead, the largest lead that YouGov have ever given them. If this poll was to be replicated at a general election, the Conservatives would get a 96 seat majority in the Commons.
45% is the target that Cameron set for the Conservatives and the level of support that is widely regarded as necessary to ensure a working majority of MPs. They have now reached it, which is fantastic news.
But let’s not get over-excited - this is just one poll, and the new Lib Dem leader has yet to be announced which is bound to increase their poll rating at least in the short-term. And Gordon Brown has had a very bad time of late, which is bound to impact on Labour’s poll rating, and it is thus likely if not inevitable that it will rise at some point.
Even so, it is very good news for the Conservatives. And we can all just hope that 45% becomes the standard rating the Tories get in future polls!
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They’ll have to keep it up for a long long time though, because Gordon clearly already believes he has no chance of winning an election (hence his bottling out of the chance to legitimise his regime).
There is no way he will call an election now until he is forced to.