Does Crewe and Nantwich Really Matter?
In the end, not really.
If the Conservatives win, then it is yet another tick in the box on the way to proving that they can win a general election. If Labour lose, it is another nail in the coffin of Gordon Brown’s leadership. But, in reality, it doesn’t mean much.
For one, the Conservatives haven’t won a by-election since 1982. Yet they continued to govern until 1997. So anyone who claims that a defeat in Crewe and Nantwich is a sign of an imminent electroal collapse is being massively premature.
Another reason why it doesn’t matter is because we just had an election on a significantly more national scale. Which gave a big Tory lead. So even if they lose, the Conservatives can just refer back to the recent elections - both nationally and for London Mayor.
However, it totally agree with Norfolk Blogger that anything but a Conservative victory should be “unthinkable”. As he says:
Firstly, much of Labour’s 7,000 majority in 2005 was a personal vote for Gwyneth Dunwoody who had been MP for the seat for decades.
Then you have to take in to account that Gordon Brown is the most unpopular Labour leader in polling history which when added to the Tory party having a 20% poll lead really does highlight that every single vital piece of the jigsaw is there for a Tory win…
Personally I expect a good Tory majority of about 3,000.
I agree pretty much entirely. With a 20% national poll lead, and a lead of 8% in Crewe and Nantwich itself, if the Conservatives lose it is a slap in the face for the party and Cameron in specific, considering the number of times that he has visited the constituency.
However, even if they do lose, it’s not the end of the world. Because it is only a by-election, and people vote differently in by-elections to general elections. But it is a slow down in Conservative fortunes.
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