Another Bloody By-Election. Again.
It certainly does appear to be by-election season in British politics at the moment! And a very bad season indeed for Labour [and the Lib Dems].
- Crewe and Nantwich - massive loss for Labour, and the Lib Dem machine stalls.
- Henley - humiliation for Labour, as they crash to fifth and even lose their deposit. Lib Dems fail to make any impact.
- Glasgow East - proving that no Labour MP is safe. Lib Dems fall into fourth, behind the Conservatives.
With the death of John MacDougall, another Scottish by-election is to be held in the Fife seat of Glenrothes, which was won by Labour in 2005 with a majority of 10,664 and 51.9% of the vote. But will Labour he able to keep this seat? It seems unlikely.
Labour now has to choose when to call this by-election. For obvious reasons, it is unlikely to happen during the Parliamentary recess and then we are in to the party conference season. And even the by-election is held after parliament returns, if Brown carries out the expected reshuffle and [re- re-] re-launch, if he loses it will be taken as a condemnation not only of what Brown’s government has done, but of what it proposes to do.
However, there has to be one upside for Brown - leadership plotters will hold fire for the time being, and will want him to take any fall for the loss of Glenrothes, rather than risk destroying their chances from the get-go. Of course, if Labour lose too badly, it may well just be the final straw that leads to a challenge…
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