The ThunderDragon

It certainly does appear to be by-election season in British politics at the moment! And a very bad season indeed for Labour [and the Lib Dems].

• Crewe and Nantwich - massive loss for Labour, and the Lib Dem machine stalls.
• Henley - humiliation for Labour, as they crash to fifth and even lose their deposit. Lib Dems fail to make any impact.
• Glasgow East - proving that no Labour MP is safe. Lib Dems fall into fourth, behind the Conservatives.

With the death of John MacDougall, another Scottish by-election is to be held in the Fife seat of Glenrothes, which was won by Labour in 2005 with a majority of 10,664 and 51.9% of the vote. But will Labour he able to keep this seat? It seems unlikely.

Labour now has to choose when to call this by-election. For obvious reasons, it is unlikely to happen during the Parliamentary recess and then we are in to the party conference season. And even the by-election is held after parliament returns, if Brown carries out the expected reshuffle and [re- re-] re-launch, if he loses it will be taken as a condemnation not only of what Brown’s government has done, but of what it proposes to do.

However, there has to be one upside for Brown - leadership plotters will hold fire for the time being, and will want him to take any fall for the loss of Glenrothes, rather than risk destroying their chances from the get-go. Of course, if Labour lose too badly, it may well just be the final straw that leads to a challenge…

Labour have lost Glasgow East. A seat where they had a huge 13,507 majority and gained more than 60% of the vote at the last election now lost to the SNP, with a swing of more than 22%.

When Labour is losing a seat like Glasgow East, which they really should be able to hold easily, the end is nigh for them. If this swing was repeated at a general election, Labour would be left with just one MP in Scotland - and if this were to be replicated in England as well… Of course that won’t happen, but it is an interesting statistic to look at.

Labour is now in a critical position. Gordon Brown is lucky that parliament has risen for the summer recess, or I doubt that he would have survived much longer. This was almost certainly arranged on purpose. But even so, Brown’s future as Prime Minister still hangs in the balance.

The results:

John Mason, SNP - 11,277
Margaret Curran, Labour - 10,912
Davena Rankin, Conservative - 1,639
Ian Robertson, Lib Dem - 915

Glasgow East was a good result for the SNP and the Conservatives, a bad resut for the Lib Dems and, rather obviously, a terrible night for Labour. The Conservatives leap-frogged the leaderless Scottish Lib Dems into third place. One thing that hasn’t really been mentioned with recent by-election results is that the Lib Dems, who once triumphed in these elections, really have failed miserably, their “legendary” by-election engine stalling. Three times in a row.

Is this result something from which Labour can recover? It seems unlikely when Glasgow East was such a safe seat. The end appears to be nigh for Labour.

One by-election was just a month ago. Another held its vote yesterday. And the candidate list for one more has just closed.

They think it’s all over - but it isn’t yet:

A Labour MP is set to resign forcing another potentially embarrassing by-election for Gordon Brown in the wake of his fifth place humiliation in Henley.

The Telegraph can reveal that David Marshall, the East Glasgow MP, will stand down because of ill-health on Monday.

The seat, with a 13,507 Labour majority, would normally be considered safe.

However, the Scottish National Party will target the seat and Labour sources told the Telegraph that they believed the seat was “vulnerable.” (The Telegraph)

Another by-election test for Gordon Brown. After avoiding a vote every possible opportunity, it seems that fate is conspiring the ensure that the people get as many chances to vote on Gordo as possible.

Unlike Henley - or even Crewe and Nantwich - Glasgow East is not a constituency that can, under any circumstance, be claimed to be a likely Conservative target. In 2005, Labour got nearly 61% of the vote with the Conservatives on just 7% and the SNP in second place on 17%, so to lose the seat would be a very clear signal indeed that Brown has to go.

Labour will have to fight tooth-and-nail for Glasgow East. They have no other choice. If they lose this seat, the end is more than nigh - but right here, right now.

UPDATE: More Scottish bad news for Brown, as Wendy Alexander is to stand down as Scottish Labour leader.

What this really means is that yet another headache will be added to Brown’s already-huge pile of problems, exascerbated by the fact that Wendy Alexander is very much a Brownite.

The most important thing to come out of this, however, is that Mr Eugenides will be sad.

Today the Labour Party is humiliated. The Henley by-election was an even worse result than Crewe and Nantwich. The results are as follows:

1. John Howell:  Conservatives, 19,796 (56.95%, +3.46%)
2. Stephen Kearney: Lib Dems, 9,680 (27.85%, +1.84%)
3. Mark Stevenson: Green, 1,321 (3.80%, +0.54%)
4. Timothy Rait: BNP, 1,243 (3.58%, -)
5. Richard McKenzie: Labour, 1,066 (3.07%, -11.68%)
6. Chris Adams: UKIP, 843 (2.43%, -0.07%)

Nick Robinson is reporting that the current early estimate of the party’s vote shares in Crewe and Nantwich are:

50% Tory
28 % Labour
17 % Lib Dem

Surely that can’t be?!

If the result is a final vote share something like that, then I was wrong that this Crewe and Nantwich by-election doesn’t matter.

If the Conservative vote share is reaching something like 50% in a constituency that had a 48.8% Labour vote share in 2005, with the Conservatives on 32.6%, then it is a massive blow to Gordon Brown’s leadership. Even taking into account the very likely possibility that a good number of the votes were a personal vote on Gwyneth Dunwoody, since she had been the MP for much of the area since 1974, that is a big swing.

If the final tally of the votes gives results like that, it certainly is time for Brown to consider his position - and for the Labour Party to consider Brown’s position as well. Turning a 16% lead into a second place 22% behind - a swing of 38% - can only be achieved in some very special circumstances. Those being a resurgent Conservative Party, increasingly positioning itself as the alternative government, and a failing, out of date, Labour government with a leader about as charismatic as Mr Potato Head - without the plastic features.

The Crewe and Nantwich by-election is taking place today - and I keep writing about it even though I don’t think it really matters …

Bookies are already paying out on a Conservatice victory before any votes were even cast, let alone counted, is profoundly absurd - and, frankly, an affront to democracy. We do not know how the electroate of Crewe and Nantwich will vote, no matter what the polls say. All we can do is make educated estimates and place results in order of likelihood and how good the result will be perceived to be for each of the parties.

Via PoliticsHome’s PHI100 panel, this is the expectations of what the Crewe and Nantwich by-election results will mean for the two main parties. They seem in about the right area to me. Though any Conservative by-election win - the first when I have been alive - will be good in itself, no matter how many votes it is by.

Will Gordo be able to find his way out if Labout lose by more than 4,000 - down from a majority of 7,000 in 2005…?

Video hat-tip: PlayPolitical

In the end, not really.

If the Conservatives win, then it is yet another tick in the box on the way to proving that they can win a general election. If Labour lose, it is another nail in the coffin of Gordon Brown’s leadership. But, in reality, it doesn’t mean much.

For one, the Conservatives haven’t won a by-election since 1982. Yet they continued to govern until 1997. So anyone who claims that a defeat in Crewe and Nantwich is a sign of an imminent electroal collapse is being massively premature.

Another reason why it doesn’t matter is because we just had an election on a significantly more national scale. Which gave a big Tory lead. So even if they lose, the Conservatives can just refer back to the recent elections - both nationally and for London Mayor.

However, it totally agree with Norfolk Blogger that anything but a Conservative victory should be “unthinkable”. As he says:

Firstly, much of Labour’s 7,000 majority in 2005 was a personal vote for Gwyneth Dunwoody who had been MP for the seat for decades.

Then you have to take in to account that Gordon Brown is the most unpopular Labour leader in polling history which when added to the Tory party having a 20% poll lead really does highlight that every single vital piece of the jigsaw is there for a Tory win…

Personally I expect a good Tory majority of about 3,000.

I agree pretty much entirely. With a 20% national poll lead, and a lead of 8% in Crewe and Nantwich itself, if the Conservatives lose it is a slap in the face for the party and Cameron in specific, considering the number of times that he has visited the constituency.

However, even if they do lose, it’s not the end of the world. Because it is only a by-election, and people vote differently in by-elections to general elections. But it is a slow down in Conservative fortunes.

The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich to be held on 22nd May is not a referendum on this Labour government or Gordon Brown. By-elections are held in tiny little areas, and to cast them as being any more than extremely vague indicators of national preferences and feelings is way overplaying their significance. If Edward Timpson wins for the Conservatives, or Tamsin Dunwoody wins for Labour, or even if Elizabeth Shenton wins for the Lib Dems it is not a referendum on any sort of real national significance.

Especially when we just had an election on a significantly more national scale. If anything is a referendum on Labour and Brown, that was it - and they lost, badly.

If this by-election to be fought online, then the Conservatives have won, with the Crewe and Nantwich Conservatives by-election website being far superior both in design and content to the Labour and Lib Dem ones.

One thing is certain, though: you don’t have to pay much attention to the by-election in Crewe and Nantwich to see rank hypocrisy in action. Just look at this webpage and then this one. One saying “Don’t be conned by Tory Boy Timpson” and the other proclaiming “She’s a Dunwoody”. Just showing which party is the one with the hereditary, rather than meritocratic, principles.

The class-war approach is old hat, not top hat - and backfiring.

UPDATE: UK Polling Report, Iain Dale, and Guido Fawkes have a poll that reports the Conservatives are on course to win this by-election: Con 43, Lab 39, Lib Dem 16. Iain Dale also says that he has been told that the “election figures were adjusted downwards to take account of large number of Labour don’t knows. If they stayed at home on polling day, the Tories would win by 13 points.” Good times. But will they last?

Hat-tip to Quaequam Blog! for the Tory-toff/hereditary MP hypocrisy.

The most important result of the 1 May elections, the vote to select London’s Mayor for the next four years, is in.

Boris has won! Absolutely fantastic news, which rounds off a great election for the Conservatives. More than 250 councillor up, plus one London Mayor. All we’re waiting on now is the final GLA seat results.

Boris didn’t just win - he won convincingly. He enjoyed an 8.1% [149,884 votes] lead over Ken, with 42.5% of those cast, after the first preference votes and although more second preference votes went to Ken - by about 11,000 - all of Ken’s second preference votes didn’t amount to more than Boris’ first preference lead.

Londoners have made their choice, and have chosen a Conservative to be the second mayor of London and, what’s more, they have done so convincingly. Corks should certainly be popping in CCHQ tonight.

Now it is just up to Boris to prove to the people of London that they have selected the right person for the job.

On a far more local note, here is the Watford Observer write-up on the Three Rivers council, for which I was standing, and achieved a decent swing in my ward for the length of time that I have been the candidate. Unfortunately, the BNP gained a seat on the council.

All the England and Wales council results are in.

This has been a disaster for Labour. More than just “disappointing” but disastrous. Losing 331 councillors and 9 councils is far more than any was predicting. This is the beginning of a melt-down. And it, really, can only get worse for them. If Ken loses London as widely expected then, well, there is no denying that 1 May 2008 will go down as a catastrophic day in the history of the Labour Party. That Brown’s choice of General Secretary has also refused to take up the position makes 2 May a very bad day as well.

Conversely, for the Conservatives it had an absolute triumph. A gain of 256 councillors and 12 councils, when a net gain of 10-200 was said to be the expected area, and more than 200 being champagne cork-poppingly good. And this is even better than that. A “big moment” it was. A Boris victory in London would just be the icing on the huge celebratory cake.

The Lib Dems, despite some good gains, such as Sheffield and St Albans, have utterly failed to make any real impact. They are hardly “regaining momentum“, but going backwards in the face of Conservative advancement, with their share of the projected national vote falling another percentage point for the fourth year in a row. Gaining 34 councillors and 1 council is hardly any sort of real advancement. The only real redeeming factor for them is that Labour got an ever lower projected national share than they did. And of course, Paddick has about as much chance of getting elected London mayor as I do.