ThunderDragon Blog

Quite obviously the man who has presided over it, either as Chancellor, with responsibility for managing the nation’s finances and economy, or as Prime Minister, ultimately responsible for all govenment policy.

As Cameron said yesterday:

Who was it who said that he, and he alone, had rewritten the laws of economics to end boom and bust? The answer is our prime minister, the then chancellor, Gordon Brown. And my message to Gordon Brown is this: ‘You have had your boom, and your reputation is now bust.’

And George Osborne reiterated today:

While the regulation failed, the debt soared and no one called time on the age of irresponsibility

I’m not, however, convinced yet by the idea of an Office for Budget Responsibility. It’s almost as if they are saying that they don’t quite trust themselves to run the economy properly. But it can also be seen as an attempt to ensure that economic measures are not enacted in order to try and get short-term political benefits - and, when established, as a means by which all governments can be properly scrutinised when it coems to their economic policy and prevent another architect of an age of irresponsibility getting beyond their blueprints.

Ruth Kelly’s resignation from the Cabinet to, as the old saying goes “spend more time with her family” - despite them having survived pretty well for the last eleven* years.

Whenever a politician quits to “spend more time with their family”, the automatic assumptions are usually one of the following:

(a) They have done something incredibly embarrasing or otherwise been caught out in some way that would force a humiliating resignation at a later date;

(b) They vehemently dislike or disagree with their party leader, but don’t have the balls to challenge them in public over it; or

(c) They need an excuse to jump before they are pushed.

With Ruth Kelly, I doubt that it is (a), and (c) seems unlikely, despite her continuing failure as a Cabinet minister - after all, Des Browne has managed to keep his job so far!

So (b) it is.

Of course, there’s always the idea that they could actually be resigning to spend more time with their family… but that’s just laughable.

So what are the effects of her resignation? The first thing it has done is damanged Brown, since a Cabinet minister resigning for any reason is pretty bad news for a Prime Minister - especially considering the way it was rushed out amidst rumours that there was a clutch of ministers ready to quit with her.

What it also did was push Brown’s conference speech right out of the news. Even though the speech still dominated the newspaper headlines, Ruth Kelly’s resignation has dominated the broadcast and online news, and any political discussion.

What little breathing space that speech won for him has now all but been wiped out. So the Glenrothes by-election - as reports set the date at 6th November - becomes an even greater game of survival than before. If Brown loses it, he may well still be able to hold on - so long as it is close. If Labour lose in a landslide, Brown’s days will almost certainly be numbered.

Needless to say, I hope he stays in position.

* Both the age of her oldest child and the length of time she has been an MP.

It was supposed to have been the speech of his life. It was his chance to [try and] steal back to limelight and the political impetus - and, most importantly, end speculation about his future.

He needed a speech that would be seen a a great success seen by loyalist and rebel MPs alike, as well as the party faithful and the media.

Did it work?

Well… not really.

Apart from one good line - “everyone knows that I’m all in favour of apprenticeships, but let me tell you this is not a time for a novice” - it appears to have been seen as an “ok” speech. Not that good, not that bad.

Good enough to prevent an immediate coup, but not good enough to end the speculation once and for all. Pretty much an IDS speech - enough to remove the knives from his back for now, but not for long. Especially since they still have to fight the Glenrothes by-election before too long.

That is where the crunch-point will be reached. If Labour win, Brown will be safe. If Labour lose, they have a choice - keep Brown and face a 1997-style landslide or elect a new leader and hope to lose less badly - or maybe even pull a victory out of the hat. But at what cost?

Image nicked from Political Betting

Gordon Brown’s keynote conference speech today is the most important speech of his life. It will determine whether he can manage to hold on to power for much - or any - longer.

If he wants to hold on until the next general election, it needs to be a real blaster of a speech - and be seen as one by loyalist and rebel MPs alike, as well as the party faithful and the media.

A tall order indeed. Is he up to it?

Somehow I doubt it.

Brown is increasingly becoming a complete irrelevance. He has been mocked by an amusement park and a university careers service. A

nd now the BBC is even allowing Bruce Forsyth to openly take the piss out of him on Strictly Come Dancing, as he did on yesterday’s opening night - right at the start as well!

Click here to watch the programme [2m 40s in].

JK Rowling, millionairess author of the Harry Potter books, has given Gordon Brown his one piece of good news in weeks: she has donated £1 million to the Labour Party.

And her reasons for this? Because Labour has, she claims, “reversed the long-term trend in child poverty, and is one of the leading EU countries in combating child poverty.” Yet that’s actually a load of complete bollocks:

Gordon Brown’s flagship anti-poverty campaign [has] received a triple blow… with news that a rise in both child and pensioner poverty had left Britain a more unequal country than when Labour came to power in 1997…

The IFS said inequality in Britain was equal to its highest level since figures were available in 1961. (The Guardian)

And because she opposes the Conservative proposals of tax breaks for married couples, ignoring the reasons for this to encourage couples to stay together where possible, rather than to financially reward them for breaking up.

JK Rowling has shown that even though she is a very good fantasy writer, she obviously hasn’t paid any attention to reality. In her fantasy world, Labour has ended poverty. In the real world, it’s worse than ever.

I’m not bothered by her donation - £1m isn’t much of either her fortune or anywhere near enough to help the financially-stricken Labour Party - but because of her fallacious reasoning. If she had really wanted to help end child poverty, she would have given her money to charity rather than the Labour Party, who have patently failed to do anything about it, even after eleven years.

A Facebook group has been set up by Tory Bear encouraging a boycott of her work. Even though I have purchased her work, I won’t be purchasing any more.

Click image for a larger version.

Unemployment has risen, again. It now stands at a massive 1.72 million people.

The number of people claiming unemployment benefit has risen by the largest amount for almost 16 years, official figures show.

The claimant count leapt by 32,500 to 904,900 in August - far more than had been forecast. It is the seventh consecutive monthly rise and the largest since December 1992…

A total of 138,000 people were made redundant in the three months up to July - an increase of 28,000 on the previous quarter. (The Telegraph)

And of course, this just going to rise, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the takeover of Merrill Lynch, and the government-sanctioned Lloyds TSB-HBOS merger. The latter is directly down to the government, as otherwise there is no way a merger between two such giants would be allowed - and the government are only interested in protecting Scottish jobs.

Gordo just isn’t working.

After today’s fresh disaster for Gordon Brown, with the resignation of a Minister of State, David Cairns, following on from a weekend of revolting Labour MPs , what can he do now?

As far as I can see, he has four main options:

1. Resign as PM as let the Labour Party try and sort itself out.

Somehow, I can’t see Mr. Control Freak relinquishing power so easily.

2. Struggle on, holding on to power and position by his finger-tips.

The worst possible outcome for Labour, the best for the Conservatives - and the most likely

3. Do a “John Major” and call the rebels bluff in a “back me or sack me” leadership election of the party.

But has he got the balls to try such a risky approach? It all comes down to whether David Miliband will do a “Portillo” or not…

4.Spill political blood with a Night of the Long Knives approach to make it clear that he will not accept rebellion.

The problem with this being: do they even know the rebels are? After all, this morning they were denying the David Cairns was going to resign!

But considering Gordo’s history, I doubt he’ll actually choose any approach, and rather decide to allude to all of the above and look even more of a ditherer and bottler than he does already.

Of course, another aspect to consider is whether or not the Labour party actually has the killer instinct to finish the job, or whether they’ll just dither themselves and leave a weakened Brown in place after a tumultuous Conference [which starts on Saturday].

What do you think Gordo can or will do now?

The Labour Party is receiving letters asking for a leadership election to be held to depose Gordon Brown and install someone else [anyone else?]. One of these even came from a now ex-Vice Chair of the party. As it stands at the moment, this number stands at seven publically confirmed MPs, but that number is sure to rise.

But under Labour’s rules, they need 70 MPs to nominate someone other than Brown as leader in order to force an election.

And, as if to support this, an article published Progress, written by twelve back-benchers, including six former ministers, stating that under Brown Labour was suffering a “malaise” and had “no explanation yet” on what they would do to reinviagorate the economy. Just piling more pressure on the Prime Minister who only seems to be able to do re-launches.

What a time for a revolt. It is just a week until the Labour Conference is scheduled to start, when all eyes will be on Brown and his party - and if this is anything to go by, it’ll be quite a show they’ll put on for us.

These are supposed to form, accoring to Ben Brogan, the first in a series of events designed to force Brown from office.

However, as yet it does not appear that there is anyone who is set up behind this to try and wrest the power away from Brown. Not at least in the public eye, anyway. The field at first glance appears vast - David Miliband appears to be more than willing, Jack Straw is an obvious set of safe hands to take the reins for a short while, and I’m sure Harriet Harman would be more than happy to take the step up from her Deputy position. But according to the public, none of these are preferable choices.

No, a focus group is suggesting that the MPs to choose between are James Purnell and Jon Cruddas.

Gordon Brown accepts responsibility? Well, sorta.

Of course. I’m the person who is in charge and I have got to take responsibility for what happens.

And here’s the but…

But I am explaining to you that if you go around the world, you will see that every country is affected.

So it’s all the worlds fault, after all. Not Gordo’s - everyone elses.

The fact that Gordo was Chancellor for eleven years and systematically ensured that there was no leftover money should the economy falter is by no means his fault. Understand?