The ThunderDragon

Completely and utterly deluded. Especially when polls are suggesting that after the next election, there may be a Conservative Commons majority of 260. That Brown thinks that Labour will win the next election really shows how separated he is from the real world.

I agree with Eric Pickles, who says:

The analysis is that it is now impossible for [Labour] to win the election, but it’s perfectly possible for [the Conservatives] to lose it… We can’t take a 20 per cent lead in the polls for granted.

Labour certainly appear finished, and it is unlikely that a change of leader will make any real difference at all. The Conservatives, however, certainly can’t take any poll lead for granted. We an’t be complacent. We need to keep on working to get a raft of policies and a united vision for what a Conservative government will do, and communicate that to the people between now and the next election.

It certainly does appear to be by-election season in British politics at the moment! And a very bad season indeed for Labour [and the Lib Dems].

• Crewe and Nantwich - massive loss for Labour, and the Lib Dem machine stalls.
• Henley - humiliation for Labour, as they crash to fifth and even lose their deposit. Lib Dems fail to make any impact.
• Glasgow East - proving that no Labour MP is safe. Lib Dems fall into fourth, behind the Conservatives.

With the death of John MacDougall, another Scottish by-election is to be held in the Fife seat of Glenrothes, which was won by Labour in 2005 with a majority of 10,664 and 51.9% of the vote. But will Labour he able to keep this seat? It seems unlikely.

Labour now has to choose when to call this by-election. For obvious reasons, it is unlikely to happen during the Parliamentary recess and then we are in to the party conference season. And even the by-election is held after parliament returns, if Brown carries out the expected reshuffle and [re- re-] re-launch, if he loses it will be taken as a condemnation not only of what Brown’s government has done, but of what it proposes to do.

However, there has to be one upside for Brown - leadership plotters will hold fire for the time being, and will want him to take any fall for the loss of Glenrothes, rather than risk destroying their chances from the get-go. Of course, if Labour lose too badly, it may well just be the final straw that leads to a challenge…

How much does the Labour Party hate us? One hell of a lot if they can even consider making Harriet Harman leader!

She’s the worst possible alternative to Gordon Brown. Despite being English and middle-class, in alternative to Brown’s dour Scottishness, she is more likely than anyone to alienate the inhabitants of Middle England that Labour needs to attract/hold on to in order to stay in government.

The only real, logical, alternative to Brown as Prime Minister is Jack Straw. David Miliband is simply not stupid enough to want it right now. He’s not interested until after the election, and the opportunity for renewal is possible. So only Straw has the stature and experience - and name recognition - to have any chance as PM.

Of course, as a Conservative, I want Brown to stay on. He’s doing such a good job [for us]!

This is not the sort of thing that MPs should say:

Labour’s fight to regain the support of the electorate took a less conventional turn this week as David Clelland began an epistolary battle with one dissatisfied voter.

Mr Clelland, who has represented the people of Tyne Bridge in Newcastle for 23 years, has written to one resident informing him that he had no desire for his vote in the future.

“I accept your offer not to vote for me again,” he wrote, in bold defiance of the usual conventions that exist in communications between elected representatives and their electorate. “I do not want your vote so you can stick it wherever best pleases you.” (The Times)

We are your bosses - and your customers - you arrogant shithead. You only do your job and have your responsibilities at our discretion.

As for anyone who works in a service role, there is one simple rule: be polite. Disagree with people all you like, but be polite about it. What you certainly don’t do is tell them to “stick” anything anywhere. And I feel no sympathy for him. Want to vent? No problem. Just do it in private.

MPs should not write anything that they do not mind being published. They should reply to constituents letters telling them why they agree of disagree with them, and try to win them over - even if they have no chance of actually doing so. After all, if they can’t justify what they do, they damn well shouldn’t be doing it.

Let’s just hope that David Clelland MP is told “stick your job” by his constituents.

Image: David Clelland

Certainly that will be the case if this happens:

Unions are to demand new rights to strike as the price for keeping the cash-strapped Labour Party afloat.

Repealing the ban on secondary industrial action is among a swath of left-wing policies that unions want to see in the Labour manifesto. The pressure on Gordon Brown comes as he is relying on the unions to help to avert Labour’s cash crisis, when they are in increasingly militant mood…

As unions begin to flex their muscles on the ground, they are working to maximise their leverage over the Prime Minister at a time when the Government is politically vulnerable and the party is financially parlous. (The Times)

If Labour give in to the Unions, they will have sold this country down the river.

I got a joke via text message in the past week. Well, several truth be told, but one I want to mention read as this:

The Labour Party has decided to change its logo from a rose to a condom, believing it more accurately reflects their policies.

This is because a condom allows for inflation, halts production, destroys the next generation, protects a bunch of pricks, and gives you a sense of security whilst being fucked.

I’m reliably informed that this joke isn’t that new. In fact, it first started appearing back in 1978, just before the “Winter of Discontent“. A few years before I popped into the world, it has to be said, but clearly people are starting to feel the same for our present government as they did for Callaghan’s administration 30 years ago. Otherwise, this joke wouldn’t have any resonance.

So, how else can we compare the two time periods?

Callaghan was a former Chancellor - Likewise Brown

Callaghan took over after the previous PM resigned (Harold Wilson) - Tony Blair leaving office wasn’t a surprise, but it was a case of taking over from someone.

Callaghan’s government suffered a series of by-election defeats. See Crewe & Nantwich.

The cause of the Winter of Discontent was all linked to below-inflation pay rises. See teachers and police officers.

James Callaghan did however take over a party that had already lost its Commons majority, whereas GB took over a (albeit smaller than previous) fairly healthy position. Furthermore, the below-inflation pay rises were intended and accepted by the Trade Unions due to the inflation problems in the country at that time. So, you can’t draw a direct comparison.

No doubt people can add a few extra similarities though. So, if history does repeat itself, what might happen?

Well, fuel shortages are a distinct possibility. Not because of a Lorry Drivers strike though, but road hauliers and blockades.

Perhaps a Motion of no confidence is very unlikely as there’s still a Labour majority in the house. But, if things get worse and we have a “summer” of discontent ahead of us, it’s not inconceivable that some MPs will vote against their leader in the hope that their constituents appreciate that and keep them in a job.

Callaghan’s decision not to call an early election has been widely viewed, with the benefit of hindsight,
as the biggest mistake of his premiership. Are we likely to see the same opinion with Golden Brown?

Brilliant post from Norfolk Blogger on “New” Labour’s switch back to Real Labour:

Yesterday parts of the country had power cuts, fuel prices are rocketing and industrial action is now common place in the public sector and also in the wider community (as can be seen from the fuel protests yesterday).

So here we are again, 30 years later, looking like we are going to have the same old same old from Labour. I knew they’d eventually revert to type.

Proof that Labour doesn’t work.

Great spot by Nich. Unfortunately I’m too young to have recalled it from last time.

What is a vulture?

Vultures are scavenging birds, feeding mostly on the carcasses of dead animals

Converted to focus on the political arena:

Vultures are ex-ministers, who make a living feeding mostly on the carcasses of ex- (or nearly ex-) Prime Ministers.

But Tony McNulty says:

The vultures should clear off because there is no corpse around.

Then why are there vultures? Because they can smell dead meat. They can sense the dead and the near-dead. And they see it in Gordon Brown. They can smell that he is bleeding profusely from a deep wound inflcited on him by the electorate at the polls.

They are hovering over Brown in the sky, circling and curcling, waiting for the right moment to sweep in and add another minor wound to the multitude that he is already weakened by*.

The vultures will continue to circle until either their prey resigns and they get the chance to feast or it recovers enough for their efforts to be entirely ineffectual. However, neither of these appear imminent. Though with the man talked up as the heir-apparent pointedly refusing to rule out standing for the job, pressure will just continue to increase - unless Labour’s standing in the polls does.

As Matt Wardman points out, Brown’s position is “unassailable“. (Ahem.)

* I could list them here, but I have better things to do that write them all down, and I’m sure you have better things to do than to read such a long list.

David Cameron says that Labour have “abandoned” the principles of “New Labour” and have instead returned to the “Denis Healey era” of emergency budget and “class war campaigns”.

That they are going back to a class war footing certainly is true, as evidenced by the Crewe and Nantwich by-election campaign that Labour have been waging.

It is also news to me - and probably to most Labour ministers - that there are were New Labour principles at all!

Yeah, right. Somehow, I don’t think so. Frank Field’s attack on Gordon Brown is devastating:

The awful fact that is coming across is that he seems so unhappy in himself. And I think everybody in the country who has ever watched a news clip of the Prime Minister realises that, and it’s a mega problem for him and the government…

That is clearly part of the tragedy on a personal level, as well as on a party, government and country level, that someone whose real aim in life was to be Prime Minister now has the task and seems to be so lacking in enjoyment in trying to try it out.

But Brown isn’t going anywhere. There is no chance of him ever resigning without being forced to since he simply could never bring hismelf to give up the position he fought for so long to get. And there is absolutely no chance of the Labour Party as a whole growing balls and forcing him out.

After all, after saying that Brown was the only person with the skills to be the party leader and Prime Minister just a few months ago, to then force him out and replace him with someone who they considered just a few months ago to be of a lower class would show an utter lack of intelligence and consistency - and immediately cast doubts over the new leader’s ability to govern Britain.

Since Field’s outspoken attack on Brown, ministers - including Brown’s acolyte, Balls - have been sent out to attack Field in return. It appears that they have had at least some effect, sicne Field has now apologised for allowing his campaign over the scrapping of the 10p tax rate to “become personal”. But why should he, when it certainly is a personal issue to all those millions who have been financially punished by Labour!

Brown will certainly still be leader of the Labour Party at the next election - but not for long afterwards, even if by some miracle he manages to scrape a majority.