ThunderDragon Blog

This comment, made on the Andrew Marr Show, certainly appears to suggest that this might be the case:

I am absolutely not going to condemn any of my colleagues who want that debate but I think we have to support the government and we have to support the work we are doing because it is absolutely the right direction for the country…

For goodness sake, we are 20 points behind in the opinion polls. But we have to do better and make our arguments clear and that is what we are trying to do.

He refuses to ask those MPs calling for a new leader to shut up, and at the same time points out the current political doldrums in which the Labour Party is finding itself.

Though the question still remains - is it because he wants the job, or supports someone else for it instead?

The Labour Party is receiving letters asking for a leadership election to be held to depose Gordon Brown and install someone else [anyone else?]. One of these even came from a now ex-Vice Chair of the party. As it stands at the moment, this number stands at seven publically confirmed MPs, but that number is sure to rise.

But under Labour’s rules, they need 70 MPs to nominate someone other than Brown as leader in order to force an election.

And, as if to support this, an article published Progress, written by twelve back-benchers, including six former ministers, stating that under Brown Labour was suffering a “malaise” and had “no explanation yet” on what they would do to reinviagorate the economy. Just piling more pressure on the Prime Minister who only seems to be able to do re-launches.

What a time for a revolt. It is just a week until the Labour Conference is scheduled to start, when all eyes will be on Brown and his party - and if this is anything to go by, it’ll be quite a show they’ll put on for us.

These are supposed to form, accoring to Ben Brogan, the first in a series of events designed to force Brown from office.

However, as yet it does not appear that there is anyone who is set up behind this to try and wrest the power away from Brown. Not at least in the public eye, anyway. The field at first glance appears vast - David Miliband appears to be more than willing, Jack Straw is an obvious set of safe hands to take the reins for a short while, and I’m sure Harriet Harman would be more than happy to take the step up from her Deputy position. But according to the public, none of these are preferable choices.

No, a focus group is suggesting that the MPs to choose between are James Purnell and Jon Cruddas.

… and Cameron’s to the Right.

Gordon Brown is now seen as being much farther away from the position of the average voter than Tony Blair was when he was Prime Minister…

The poll… shows that voters have sharply revised their view of Mr Brown over the past year, seeing him as much more left-wing than in early September 2007, at the end of his brief honeymoon as Prime Minister. This is the biggest change for any leader or party over the period.

However, Mr Brown is narrowly nearer both to the Centre and to the average voter than David Cameron, who is seen as shifting to the right…

The poll therefore shows that, despite the shift away from the average voter by Mr Brown and Labour, Mr Cameron and his party still have a long way to go to be where the average voter is. On a five-year comparison, the Tories have, however, moved 0.30 nearer the Centre, Labour 0.12 farther away. (The Times)

However, there is one huge issue over this poll: because it has been created entirely on a Left-Right one-dimensional sliding scale.

[Sidenote: Clegg is seen as only very slightly more towards the centre than Brown in this poll.]

This is a rubbish scale. Politics is so much more complicated than can ever be expressed in one dimension. Even the two dimensional scale leaves much to be desired, but it is as good as we can get. To start with, it includes “Libertarian” and “Authoritarian”, which can cross the Left-Right axis. So, if they want this sort of poll to be taken seriously, they need to plot it on the two-dimension scale.

As it is, this poll shows little about how the public actually view the parties.

Completely and utterly deluded. Especially when polls are suggesting that after the next election, there may be a Conservative Commons majority of 260. That Brown thinks that Labour will win the next election really shows how separated he is from the real world.

I agree with Eric Pickles, who says:

The analysis is that it is now impossible for [Labour] to win the election, but it’s perfectly possible for [the Conservatives] to lose it… We can’t take a 20 per cent lead in the polls for granted.

Labour certainly appear finished, and it is unlikely that a change of leader will make any real difference at all. The Conservatives, however, certainly can’t take any poll lead for granted. We an’t be complacent. We need to keep on working to get a raft of policies and a united vision for what a Conservative government will do, and communicate that to the people between now and the next election.

It certainly does appear to be by-election season in British politics at the moment! And a very bad season indeed for Labour [and the Lib Dems].

• Crewe and Nantwich - massive loss for Labour, and the Lib Dem machine stalls.
• Henley - humiliation for Labour, as they crash to fifth and even lose their deposit. Lib Dems fail to make any impact.
• Glasgow East - proving that no Labour MP is safe. Lib Dems fall into fourth, behind the Conservatives.

With the death of John MacDougall, another Scottish by-election is to be held in the Fife seat of Glenrothes, which was won by Labour in 2005 with a majority of 10,664 and 51.9% of the vote. But will Labour he able to keep this seat? It seems unlikely.

Labour now has to choose when to call this by-election. For obvious reasons, it is unlikely to happen during the Parliamentary recess and then we are in to the party conference season. And even the by-election is held after parliament returns, if Brown carries out the expected reshuffle and [re- re-] re-launch, if he loses it will be taken as a condemnation not only of what Brown’s government has done, but of what it proposes to do.

However, there has to be one upside for Brown - leadership plotters will hold fire for the time being, and will want him to take any fall for the loss of Glenrothes, rather than risk destroying their chances from the get-go. Of course, if Labour lose too badly, it may well just be the final straw that leads to a challenge…

How much does the Labour Party hate us? One hell of a lot if they can even consider making Harriet Harman leader!

She’s the worst possible alternative to Gordon Brown. Despite being English and middle-class, in alternative to Brown’s dour Scottishness, she is more likely than anyone to alienate the inhabitants of Middle England that Labour needs to attract/hold on to in order to stay in government.

The only real, logical, alternative to Brown as Prime Minister is Jack Straw. David Miliband is simply not stupid enough to want it right now. He’s not interested until after the election, and the opportunity for renewal is possible. So only Straw has the stature and experience - and name recognition - to have any chance as PM.

Of course, as a Conservative, I want Brown to stay on. He’s doing such a good job [for us]!

This is not the sort of thing that MPs should say:

Labour’s fight to regain the support of the electorate took a less conventional turn this week as David Clelland began an epistolary battle with one dissatisfied voter.

Mr Clelland, who has represented the people of Tyne Bridge in Newcastle for 23 years, has written to one resident informing him that he had no desire for his vote in the future.

“I accept your offer not to vote for me again,” he wrote, in bold defiance of the usual conventions that exist in communications between elected representatives and their electorate. “I do not want your vote so you can stick it wherever best pleases you.” (The Times)

We are your bosses - and your customers - you arrogant shithead. You only do your job and have your responsibilities at our discretion.

As for anyone who works in a service role, there is one simple rule: be polite. Disagree with people all you like, but be polite about it. What you certainly don’t do is tell them to “stick” anything anywhere. And I feel no sympathy for him. Want to vent? No problem. Just do it in private.

MPs should not write anything that they do not mind being published. They should reply to constituents letters telling them why they agree of disagree with them, and try to win them over - even if they have no chance of actually doing so. After all, if they can’t justify what they do, they damn well shouldn’t be doing it.

Let’s just hope that David Clelland MP is told “stick your job” by his constituents.

Image: David Clelland

Certainly that will be the case if this happens:

Unions are to demand new rights to strike as the price for keeping the cash-strapped Labour Party afloat.

Repealing the ban on secondary industrial action is among a swath of left-wing policies that unions want to see in the Labour manifesto. The pressure on Gordon Brown comes as he is relying on the unions to help to avert Labour’s cash crisis, when they are in increasingly militant mood…

As unions begin to flex their muscles on the ground, they are working to maximise their leverage over the Prime Minister at a time when the Government is politically vulnerable and the party is financially parlous. (The Times)

If Labour give in to the Unions, they will have sold this country down the river.

I got a joke via text message in the past week. Well, several truth be told, but one I want to mention read as this:

The Labour Party has decided to change its logo from a rose to a condom, believing it more accurately reflects their policies.

This is because a condom allows for inflation, halts production, destroys the next generation, protects a bunch of pricks, and gives you a sense of security whilst being fucked.

I’m reliably informed that this joke isn’t that new. In fact, it first started appearing back in 1978, just before the “Winter of Discontent“. A few years before I popped into the world, it has to be said, but clearly people are starting to feel the same for our present government as they did for Callaghan’s administration 30 years ago. Otherwise, this joke wouldn’t have any resonance.

So, how else can we compare the two time periods?

Callaghan was a former Chancellor - Likewise Brown

Callaghan took over after the previous PM resigned (Harold Wilson) - Tony Blair leaving office wasn’t a surprise, but it was a case of taking over from someone.

Callaghan’s government suffered a series of by-election defeats. See Crewe & Nantwich.

The cause of the Winter of Discontent was all linked to below-inflation pay rises. See teachers and police officers.

James Callaghan did however take over a party that had already lost its Commons majority, whereas GB took over a (albeit smaller than previous) fairly healthy position. Furthermore, the below-inflation pay rises were intended and accepted by the Trade Unions due to the inflation problems in the country at that time. So, you can’t draw a direct comparison.

No doubt people can add a few extra similarities though. So, if history does repeat itself, what might happen?

Well, fuel shortages are a distinct possibility. Not because of a Lorry Drivers strike though, but road hauliers and blockades.

Perhaps a Motion of no confidence is very unlikely as there’s still a Labour majority in the house. But, if things get worse and we have a “summer” of discontent ahead of us, it’s not inconceivable that some MPs will vote against their leader in the hope that their constituents appreciate that and keep them in a job.

Callaghan’s decision not to call an early election has been widely viewed, with the benefit of hindsight,
as the biggest mistake of his premiership. Are we likely to see the same opinion with Golden Brown?

Brilliant post from Norfolk Blogger on “New” Labour’s switch back to Real Labour:

Yesterday parts of the country had power cuts, fuel prices are rocketing and industrial action is now common place in the public sector and also in the wider community (as can be seen from the fuel protests yesterday).

So here we are again, 30 years later, looking like we are going to have the same old same old from Labour. I knew they’d eventually revert to type.

Proof that Labour doesn’t work.

Great spot by Nich. Unfortunately I’m too young to have recalled it from last time.