The ThunderDragon

Completely and utterly deluded. Especially when polls are suggesting that after the next election, there may be a Conservative Commons majority of 260. That Brown thinks that Labour will win the next election really shows how separated he is from the real world.

I agree with Eric Pickles, who says:

The analysis is that it is now impossible for [Labour] to win the election, but it’s perfectly possible for [the Conservatives] to lose it… We can’t take a 20 per cent lead in the polls for granted.

Labour certainly appear finished, and it is unlikely that a change of leader will make any real difference at all. The Conservatives, however, certainly can’t take any poll lead for granted. We an’t be complacent. We need to keep on working to get a raft of policies and a united vision for what a Conservative government will do, and communicate that to the people between now and the next election.

Firstly, the news that Labour have slumped to what is claimed to be their lowest level of support since polling began - with them on 23, the Lib Dems only just behind them on 18, and the Conservatives leading on 47 [a lead of 24 points - which is larger than Labour's entire current support!].

Especially bad is that Gordon Brown’s net approval rating is the worst ever for a Prime Minister at minus 60. Even John Major only hit minus 59!

It’s a nice repeat of this poll result, although by the same pollster (YouGov) for a different newspaper. It must seem like a very long time ago to Labour supporters that “Labour jump to within three points of Tories” was a newspaper headline - yet it was only two months.

The vultures just started circling that significant amount lower, methinks.

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The other good poll is relating to the race to America’s next president. Barack Obama - who expects to clinch the Democratic nomination next week - received 52% in a poll, with John McCain languishing way behind on just 15%.

It’s just that this poll was conducted across five European countries: Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Russia. And unfortunately, we don’t get an actual vote!

Nick Robinson is reporting that the current early estimate of the party’s vote shares in Crewe and Nantwich are:

50% Tory
28 % Labour
17 % Lib Dem

Surely that can’t be?!

If the result is a final vote share something like that, then I was wrong that this Crewe and Nantwich by-election doesn’t matter.

If the Conservative vote share is reaching something like 50% in a constituency that had a 48.8% Labour vote share in 2005, with the Conservatives on 32.6%, then it is a massive blow to Gordon Brown’s leadership. Even taking into account the very likely possibility that a good number of the votes were a personal vote on Gwyneth Dunwoody, since she had been the MP for much of the area since 1974, that is a big swing.

If the final tally of the votes gives results like that, it certainly is time for Brown to consider his position - and for the Labour Party to consider Brown’s position as well. Turning a 16% lead into a second place 22% behind - a swing of 38% - can only be achieved in some very special circumstances. Those being a resurgent Conservative Party, increasingly positioning itself as the alternative government, and a failing, out of date, Labour government with a leader about as charismatic as Mr Potato Head - without the plastic features.

…would give an extremely large Conservative majority, if polls like this are to be believed:

Conservatives: 49%

Labour: 23%

Liberal Democrats: 17%

A general election result of this percentage would give us a parliament made of the following:

Conservatives: 469 MPs

Labour: 129 MPs

Liberal Democrats: 24 MPs

… aka, a Tory majority of 316.

[Prediction by Electoral Calculus]

Of course, as much as I and every other Conservative supporter would like a see a result like that, none of us are [at least I hope none are] niave enough to believe that it will - or, really, could happen. Even with the massively successful for us local elections this year, we got “only” 44% of the vote. So quite how one could expect that to translate into a general election share of 49%, I don’t know.

One thing is certain: this will not be the vote shares that the parties get at the next general election - whenever it is. To start with, it misses out any impact of other minor parties, such as the SNP and Plaid Cymru. And there’s the fact that this is a mid-term poll right after a triumphant local election for the Conservatives.

What it does do is perk up Tory activists like myself. And it puts paid to the claim that “the Conservatives aren’t doing anywhere near as well as New Labour did when in Opposition”. It also sets a benchmark for the Conservatives, though. If they don’t get this sort of level agin they’ll be seen to have hit a “slump”.

If only they can keep the lead somewhere around that level now…

A Populus poll puts just a three-point gap between the Conservatives and Labour, with the voting shares being: CON 37% (-3): LAB 34% (+3): LD 19%(+2). This is bad, bad news for the Tories, dropping below the 40% mark and coming some close to Labour in percentage terms.

However, unlike the Times extract above from their website claims, this certainly does not show that “voters still prefer Labour as the Government”. More people want the Conservatives as the governemnt and Cameron as Prime Minister than Labour and Brown. It is just the issues with our political system and the massively disproportionate [aka anti-Tory] way the constituencies are currently set out, meaning that a 7% swing is needed for any sort of Tory majority in the Commons.

The Tories are ahead, but not by anywhere near enough. They need to push and keep pushing. Despite the adage that elections are lost by governments and not won by Oppositions, they need to set themselves out as a complete and authoritative alternative government to Labour. And soon. They are making good progress, but the progress needs to be picked up and run with.

Mike Rouse, who is carrying out polling on the Conservative Future elections [which you can sign up to take part in here], has the results of the first poll, held just prior to the Bristol hustings which are taking place tonight.

And the results for Chairman support is surprisingly one-sided, with one candidate in particular getting a huge level of support. However, whether this is a genuine reflection of his support or not remains to be seen - and it will be interesting to see how the poll results change in the run up to the election.

The level of support for National Chairman is as follows:

• Richardson, Matthew = 18.9%
• Rock, Michael = 73.0%
• Williams, Daryl = 8.1%

The rest of the results can be seen at Mike’s blog and here.

How much will these results effect the candidates, if at all? Maybe there will be some feedback after the Bristol hustings tonight, and maybe some change in the next poll result, which you can sign up to take part in here.

Since so many - like me - are unable to attend the Bristol hustings, maybe someone [like Mike?] Will live-blog the event or provide a summary of what has been said afterwards.

UPDATE: Mike also has an open yet anonymous poll which anyone can fill out without needing to register for the rest of the polling here.

UPDATE 2: Via John Moorcraft, there is a review of the hustings at CF Diary and photos at Nick Webb’s blog. No mention of Mike’s poll, though…

Are you a member of Conservative Future and interested in taking part in some polling during the run up to the election? If so, sign up with Mike Rouse.

Go, fill in the form, and participate in the first reliable Conservative Future polling!

Not only are his closest allies telling Brown that he time is very nearly up, but so is the electorate.

So 48% agree that the next government should be a Conservative one. Also, 51% to 31% regard David Cameron as the more likeable of the party leaders, and that Cameron “has a big lead in every demographic and region except Scotland, where Mr Brown is narrowly ahead (by 46 per cent to 43 per cent).” That’s a big lead in every demographic and region except Scotland.

This surely is very bad news for the future of Gordon Brown and this Labour government. But a very very good news for the Conservatives.

Image nicked from Guido

It seems that Labour’s fortress is under siege:

That’s so not good news for Brown. If even Labour’s heartlands of “the North”, where most of Labour’s Cabinet ministers have their seats, is under serious threat, then the possibility of a meltdown must seem all too likely.

And to a Conservative, this news just brings on a smile.

The future’s bright, the future’s blue.

It has now been reached, with YouGov giving the Conservatives 45% and a 13-point lead, the largest lead that YouGov have ever given them. If this poll was to be replicated at a general election, the Conservatives would get a 96 seat majority in the Commons.

45% is the target that Cameron set for the Conservatives and the level of support that is widely regarded as necessary to ensure a working majority of MPs. They have now reached it, which is fantastic news.

But let’s not get over-excited - this is just one poll, and the new Lib Dem leader has yet to be announced which is bound to increase their poll rating at least in the short-term. And Gordon Brown has had a very bad time of late, which is bound to impact on Labour’s poll rating, and it is thus likely if not inevitable that it will rise at some point.

Even so, it is very good news for the Conservatives. And we can all just hope that 45% becomes the standard rating the Tories get in future polls!