Labour have lost Glasgow East. A seat where they had a huge 13,507 majority and gained more than 60% of the vote at the last election now lost to the SNP, with a swing of more than 22%.
When Labour is losing a seat like Glasgow East, which they really should be able to hold easily, the end is nigh for them. If this swing was repeated at a general election, Labour would be left with just one MP in Scotland - and if this were to be replicated in England as well… Of course that won’t happen, but it is an interesting statistic to look at.
Labour is now in a critical position. Gordon Brown is lucky that parliament has risen for the summer recess, or I doubt that he would have survived much longer. This was almost certainly arranged on purpose. But even so, Brown’s future as Prime Minister still hangs in the balance.
John Mason, SNP - 11,277
Margaret Curran, Labour - 10,912
Davena Rankin, Conservative - 1,639
Ian Robertson, Lib Dem - 915
Glasgow East was a good result for the SNP and the Conservatives, a bad resut for the Lib Dems and, rather obviously, a terrible night for Labour. The Conservatives leap-frogged the leaderless Scottish Lib Dems into third place. One thing that hasn’t really been mentioned with recent by-election results is that the Lib Dems, who once triumphed in these elections, really have failed miserably, their “legendary” by-election engine stalling. Three times in a row.
Is this result something from which Labour can recover? It seems unlikely when Glasgow East was such a safe seat. The end appears to be nigh for Labour.
Voting: The chance for the people to vote for issues or politicians out of a desire to choose their own leaders and/or future.
Right?
Well, not under this government.
Instead, it has been reclassified as:
Voting: The opportunity to get into a prize draw to win a TV, iPod or supermarket voucher.
Voting is an essential part of the democratic process. Voting is about making a choice between several available options, and selecting the one who prefer [or at least dislike less] than the others.
Bribing people to turn up at the ballot box would not improve democracy. In fact, the very oppsoite - it will belittle it. Rather than a civic duty, it becomes another crass opportunity to get a prize.
Whilst taking part in the democratic process is not a rational choice - why bother when someone else will for you? - lowering it to the position of commercialism won’t help. Just like compulsory voting, it simply isn’t democratic.
It is a duty, right, and responsibility to vote. It shouldn’t be demeaned like this.
The only thing you should get for voting is the satisfaction of taking part in the process. Though we should get given stickers for it. That would be good.
A Labour MP is set to resign forcing another potentially embarrassing by-election for Gordon Brown in the wake of his fifth place humiliation in Henley.
The Telegraph can reveal that David Marshall, the East Glasgow MP, will stand down because of ill-health on Monday.
The seat, with a 13,507 Labour majority, would normally be considered safe.
However, the Scottish National Party will target the seat and Labour sources told the Telegraph that they believed the seat was “vulnerable.” (The Telegraph)
Another by-election test for Gordon Brown. After avoiding a vote every possible opportunity, it seems that fate is conspiring the ensure that the people get as many chances to vote on Gordo as possible.
Unlike Henley - or even Crewe and Nantwich - Glasgow East is not a constituency that can, under any circumstance, be claimed to be a likely Conservative target. In 2005, Labour got nearly 61% of the vote with the Conservatives on just 7% and the SNP in second place on 17%, so to lose the seat would be a very clear signal indeed that Brown has to go.
Labour will have to fight tooth-and-nail for Glasgow East. They have no other choice. If they lose this seat, the end is more than nigh - but right here, right now.
UPDATE: More Scottish bad news for Brown, as Wendy Alexander is to stand down as Scottish Labour leader.
What this really means is that yet another headache will be added to Brown’s already-huge pile of problems, exascerbated by the fact that Wendy Alexander is very much a Brownite.
The most important thing to come out of this, however, is that Mr Eugenides will be sad.
John Howell: Conservatives, 19,796 (56.95%, +3.46%)
Stephen Kearney: Lib Dems, 9,680 (27.85%, +1.84%)
Mark Stevenson: Green, 1,321 (3.80%, +0.54%)
Timothy Rait: BNP, 1,243 (3.58%, -)
Richard McKenzie: Labour, 1,066 (3.07%, -11.68%)
Chris Adams: UKIP, 843 (2.43%, -0.07%)
Yes, Labour came fifth. They were behind not just the Conservatives and Lib Dems - as was expected - but also polled significantly fewer than both the Greens and the BNP. Due to losing more than 11% of their vote share, they polled only 3% of the vote, thus losing their deposit. Not a good thing for a cash-strapped party.
Whilst this was Henley, and not exactly a seat where Labour were expected to do well, to come behind two minor parties is a massive humiliation. And to lose their deposit as well doesn’t look good. When was the last time one of the three main parties lost their deposit in a parliamentary by-election?!
However, the Lib Dems havent exactly done well, either. Their by-election prowess was once the envy of all political parties, but both in Crewe and Nantwich and in Henley they have failed miserably. Why is it that so much of Labour’s vote is skipping the Lib Dems and going straight to the Conservatives? That is the question that Nick Clegg has to answer if he is to increase his number of MPs at the next general election, or maybe even to prevent the number decreasing.
To rub this point in, here is a pictorial representation of the Henley results, courtesy of A. Tory [and Microsoft Excel]:
What the last two by-elections have shown is that the Conservatives are now seen properly as an alternative government, not just an opposing political party. This is a very good thing.
But to keep it going, Cameron and his Shadow Cabinet must bring out a concrete set of proposals to take the country forward. Whilst it is governments that lose elections and not oppositions who win them, without a proper set of proposals people will think twice before voting the Conservatives in to power.
Today, we all own the people of Ireland a huge debt of gratitude. For they have voted against the Lisbon Treaty!
Ireland is the only one of the 27 EU member states have actualy put it to a popular vote. Theya re the only ones who actually asked the people what they want. And the people said no.
This should now be the end of the Lisbon Treaty. This should now be the end of the continuing sweeping up of national powers into an undemocratic suprantional institution. If the statement of the French Prime Minister is true, of course:
If the Irish people decide to reject the treaty of Lisbon, naturally, there will be no treaty of Lisbon.
If the EU force Ireland to vote again - as they did last time over the Nice treaty - then they just show themselves to be disgusting anti-democrats. And if they try, the Irish people should refuse to vote.
The Lisbon Treaty has been rejected by the only ordinary people who were given the choice. The constitution Treaty is not wanted. It must be retired, in full. With no little bits brought in through the back door as normal business.
It is not wanted. It must now be discarded and shredded.
The only appearance it should ever make again is in the history books, as a defeated attempt to remove the power from the people.
Nick Robinson is reporting that the current early estimate of the party’s vote shares in Crewe and Nantwich are:
50% Tory
28 % Labour
17 % Lib Dem
Surely that can’t be?!
If the result is a final vote share something like that, then I was wrong that this Crewe and Nantwich by-election doesn’t matter.
If the Conservative vote share is reaching something like 50% in a constituency that had a 48.8% Labour vote share in 2005, with the Conservatives on 32.6%, then it is a massive blow to Gordon Brown’s leadership. Even taking into account the very likely possibility that a good number of the votes were a personal vote on Gwyneth Dunwoody, since she had been the MP for much of the area since 1974, that is a big swing.
If the final tally of the votes gives results like that, it certainly is time for Brown to consider his position - and for the Labour Party to consider Brown’s position as well. Turning a 16% lead into a second place 22% behind - a swing of 38% - can only be achieved in some very special circumstances. Those being a resurgent Conservative Party, increasingly positioning itself as the alternative government, and a failing, out of date, Labour government with a leader about as charismatic as Mr Potato Head - without the plastic features.
The Crewe and Nantwich by-election is taking place today - and I keep writing about it even though I don’t think it really matters …
Bookies are already paying out on a Conservatice victory before any votes were even cast, let alone counted, is profoundly absurd - and, frankly, an affront to democracy. We do not know how the electroate of Crewe and Nantwich will vote, no matter what the polls say. All we can do is make educated estimates and place results in order of likelihood and how good the result will be perceived to be for each of the parties.
Via PoliticsHome’s PHI100 panel, this is the expectations of what the Crewe and Nantwich by-election results will mean for the two main parties. They seem in about the right area to me. Though any Conservative by-election win - the first when I have been alive - will be good in itself, no matter how many votes it is by.
Will Gordo be able to find his way out if Labout lose by more than 4,000 - down from a majority of 7,000 in 2005…?
If the Conservatives win, then it is yet another tick in the box on the way to proving that they can win a general election. If Labour lose, it is another nail in the coffin of Gordon Brown’s leadership. But, in reality, it doesn’t mean much.
For one, the Conservatives haven’t won a by-election since 1982. Yet they continued to govern until 1997. So anyone who claims that a defeat in Crewe and Nantwich is a sign of an imminent electroal collapse is being massively premature.
Another reason why it doesn’t matter is because we just had an election on a significantly more national scale. Which gave a big Tory lead. So even if they lose, the Conservatives can just refer back to the recent elections - both nationally and for London Mayor.
However, it totally agree with Norfolk Blogger that anything but a Conservative victory should be “unthinkable”. As he says:
Firstly, much of Labour’s 7,000 majority in 2005 was a personal vote for Gwyneth Dunwoody who had been MP for the seat for decades.
Then you have to take in to account that Gordon Brown is the most unpopular Labour leader in polling history which when added to the Tory party having a 20% poll lead really does highlight that every single vital piece of the jigsaw is there for a Tory win…
Personally I expect a good Tory majority of about 3,000.
I agree pretty much entirely. With a 20% national poll lead, and a lead of 8% in Crewe and Nantwich itself, if the Conservatives lose it is a slap in the face for the party and Cameron in specific, considering the number of times that he has visited the constituency.
However, even if they do lose, it’s not the end of the world. Because it is only a by-election, and people vote differently in by-elections to general elections. But it is a slow down in Conservative fortunes.
The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich to be held on 22nd May is not a referendum on this Labour government or Gordon Brown. By-elections are held in tiny little areas, and to cast them as being any more than extremely vague indicators of national preferences and feelings is way overplaying their significance. If Edward Timpson wins for the Conservatives, or Tamsin Dunwoody wins for Labour, or even if Elizabeth Shenton wins for the Lib Dems it is not a referendum on any sort of real national significance.
Especially when we just had an election on a significantly more national scale. If anything is a referendum on Labour and Brown, that was it - and they lost, badly.
If this by-election to be fought online, then the Conservatives have won, with the Crewe and Nantwich Conservatives by-election website being far superior both in design and content to the Labour and Lib Dem ones.
One thing is certain, though: you don’t have to pay much attention to the by-election in Crewe and Nantwich to see rank hypocrisy in action. Just look at this webpage and then this one. One saying “Don’t be conned by Tory Boy Timpson” and the other proclaiming “She’s a Dunwoody”. Just showing which party is the one with the hereditary, rather than meritocratic, principles.
The class-war approach is old hat, not top hat - and backfiring.
UPDATE:UK Polling Report, Iain Dale, and Guido Fawkes have a poll that reports the Conservatives are on course to win this by-election: Con 43, Lab 39, Lib Dem 16. Iain Dale also says that he has been told that the “election figures were adjusted downwards to take account of large number of Labour don’t knows. If they stayed at home on polling day, the Tories would win by 13 points.” Good times. But will they last?
Hat-tip to Quaequam Blog! for the Tory-toff/hereditary MP hypocrisy.
We finally have a chance to vote on Gordon Brown! As has been flying around the blogosphere recently, we can vote to decide whether or not Madame Tussauds makes a waxwork of Gordo:
When Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair last year, for the first time in a 150 year history, Madame Tussauds took the decision not to immediately create a figure of the current Prime Minister.
Instead we chose to wait for a General Election to confirm Gordon Brown’s status. Ten months later there is still no sign that Mr Brown intends to go to the polls – so Madame Tussauds is holding its own election to let YOU decide the question: Gordon Brown – in or out?
The ballots will be counted and on Wednesday 14th May the results released. Work will either proceed on Mr Brown’s figure or be put on hold until a General Election is called, whenever that might be.
So, basically, because Gordo is a coward and chickened out, and as it becomes clear that Gordo continues to have no balls [despite having Balls], Madame Tussauds is offering us the chance to vote on him instead.
Voting closes 5pm on 13th May.
Go vote and let Gordo know that we don’t want him!
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Labour have lost Glasgow East. A seat where they had a huge 13,507 majority and gained more than 60% of the vote at the last election now lost to the SNP, with a swing of more than 22%.
Voting: The chance for the people to vote for issues or politicians out of a desire to choose their own leaders and/or future.
One by-election was 
In the end, not really.
The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich to be held on 22nd May is not a referendum on this Labour government or Gordon Brown. By-elections are held in tiny little areas, and to cast them as being any more than extremely vague indicators of national preferences and feelings is way overplaying their significance. If 
We finally have a chance to vote on Gordon Brown! As has been flying around the blogosphere recently, we can 
